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Projected Doctor Shortage in the U.S.

The United States is facing a critical shortage in its physician workforce. The Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) has projected a shortage of up to 86,000 physicians by the year 2036. This looming gap spans both primary care and specialty fields, with primary care expected to experience the largest shortage. This trend poses significant risks for patient access, healthcare quality, and overall system efficiency, particularly in underserved regions 1.

Two major demographic shifts are driving the current doctor shortage and its projected exacerbations: population growth and population aging. The U.S. population is projected to increase by more than 10% over the next decade, but even more significantly, the segment of the population aged 65 and older is expected to increase by more than one third. Older adults typically require more medical care, particularly for chronic diseases, cancer, and age-related conditions, thereby driving up the need for both primary and specialist physicians. At the same time, a large portion of the current physician workforce is aging and nearing retirement, with more than one third of physicians expected to be 65 or older within the next decade 2–4.

Although U.S. medical schools have expanded enrollment to meet demand, the number of residency training positions, which are required for medical licensure, has not kept pace. This bottleneck is largely due to a federal cap on Medicare-funded graduate medical education positions, which has remained relatively unchanged since the late 1990s. Although recent legislation has funded several thousand new slots, it falls far short of the number needed to match growing demand. This creates a pipeline issue where medical graduates cannot enter the workforce at the pace required to replace retiring physicians and serve an aging population 5–7.

While the projected doctor shortage is a nationwide concern, its effects will be disproportionately felt in rural and underserved urban areas. Rural communities already struggle with physician recruitment and retention, and many counties in the U.S. are designated as Health Professional Shortage Areas (HPSAs). In these regions, primary care and specialty services are limited, leading to delayed diagnoses and poorer health outcomes. Incentives such as loan repayment programs and rural training tracks have helped to some extent but remain insufficient to meet future needs 8–10.

Addressing this challenge requires a multi-pronged strategy. Increasing federal funding for graduate medical education programs to expand residency slots is critical. Incentivizing service in underserved regions through scholarships, tax benefits, and loan forgiveness can help redistribute the workforce. Additionally, expanding the roles of nurse practitioners and physician assistants, especially in primary care settings, may help mitigate the strain. Finally, investment in telemedicine and team-based care models also offer scalable solutions to improve access and coverage without relying solely on physicians 11–13.

The projected doctor shortage in the U.S. is a multifactorial issue driven by aging populations, limited training capacity, and geographic disparities. Without timely and targeted interventions, the healthcare system may face significant access and equity challenges—today, collaborative national efforts to expand the workforce, especially in underserved areas, are essential to maintaining quality care and health system resilience over the coming decades.

References

  1. New AAMC Report Shows Continuing Projected Physician Shortage. AAMC https://www.aamc.org/news/press-releases/new-aamc-report-shows-continuing-projected-physician-shortage.
  2. Fact Sheet: Aging in the United States | PRB. https://www.prb.org/resources/fact-sheet-aging-in-the-united-states/.
  3. Physicians Are Aging Out of the System | AMN Healthcare. https://www.amnhealthcare.com/amn-insights/physician/blog/physicians-are-aging-out-of-the-system/.
  4. Aging patients and doctors drive nation’s physician shortage. AAMC https://www.aamc.org/news/aging-patients-and-doctors-drive-nation-s-physician-shortage.
  5. Schleiter, K. & Johnson, L. Federal Bills Raise Cap on Medicare-Funded Residency Positions and Modify Graduate Medical Education Policies. J Grad Med Educ 13, 602–606 (2021). DOI: 10.4300/JGME-D-21-00642.1
  6. Office, U. S. G. A. Physician Workforce: Caps on Medicare-Funded Graduate Medical Education at Teaching Hospitals | U.S. GAO. https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-21-391.
  7. Best, J. The growing bottlenecks in specialty training. BMJ 382, p1732 (2023). DOI: 10.1136/bmj.p1732
  8. Arredondo, K., Touchett, H. N., Khan, S., Vincenti, M. & Watts, B. V. Current Programs and Incentives to Overcome Rural Physician Shortages in the United States: A Narrative Review. J Gen Intern Med 38, 916–922 (2023). DOI: 10.1007/s11606-023-08122-6
  9. NHSC Rural Community Loan Repayment Program | NHSC. https://nhsc.hrsa.gov/loan-repayment/nhsc-rural-community-loan-repayment-program.
  10. Rural Track Program Designation. https://www.acgme.org/initiatives/medically-underserved-areas-and-populations/rural-tracks/.
  11. Ahmed, H. & Carmody, J. B. On the Looming Physician Shortage and Strategic Expansion of Graduate Medical Education. Cureus 12, e9216. DOI: 10.7759/cureus.9216
  12. Committee on Pediatric Workforce, Marcin, J. P., Rimsza, M. E. & Moskowitz, W. B. The Use of Telemedicine to Address Access and Physician Workforce Shortages. Pediatrics 136, 202–209 (2015). DOI: 10.1542/peds.2015-1253
  13. Everett, C. M., Schumacher, J. R., Wright, A. & Smith, M. A. Physician Assistants and Nurse Practitioners as a Usual Source of Care. J Rural Health 25, 407–414 (2009). DOI: 10.1111/j.1748-0361.2009.00252.x